The resignation is sure to create more political firestorms for the government as it comes on the eve of the winter session of Parliament where the Opposition has already made it clear to the treasury benches that infringing on the RBI autonomy would be a big talking point for them.
The trade gap was $11.66 billion in December 2015 while in September 2015 it stood at $10.16 billion
India's economy will do well once vaccination reaches a critical mass as pent up demand, global recovery and easy financial conditions will boost activities, RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Ashima Goyal said on Tuesday.
Progress on monsoons along with favourable base effect in 2HFY2017 continues to point towards RBI achieving its near 5 per cent inflation target by the year-end
Services sector activities improved further and touched a five-month high in April driven by a surge in incoming new work orders that boosted business activity and supported a renewed increase in employment, according to a survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index jumped to 57.9 in April, from 53.6 in March, highlighting a sharp rate of expansion that was the fastest since last November amid mounting price pressures. For the ninth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
Raghuram Rajan called for purposeful and effective action to counter the atmosphere of cynicism, which has slowed down the decision making process.
Arvind Subramanian was appointed CEA in October 2014 and got a year's extension in September 2017
We need a change in mindset, says the RBI Governor.
Rajan's exit will neither affect the RBI's de facto independence nor its working.
'There will be no serious effect on Indian economy because one person, one man, however powerful, however influential, however great, cannot have an impact on an economy as big and complex as India.'
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Yes Bank, TechM, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Maruti, Asian Paints and Hero MotoCorp - rising up to 5.30 per cent. The 50-share Nifty ended 85.65 points, or 0.79 per cent, higher at 10,948.25 points.
Tuesday's policy announcement had a regulatory and development component.
'We are very watchful about inflation and growth. But the main challenge is economic revival and growth.'
From the Sensex pack, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Technologies, Infosys and IndusInd Bank were the major laggards. NTPC, Power Grid, Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, HDFC and HDFC Bank were the major winners.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced to increase the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, the second hike in five weeks aimed at quelling the inflation. The MPC vote was unanimous and has decided to keep stance withdrawal from accommodative, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a press conference on Wednesday. The decision was taken during a three-day meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to review the interest rates in the country. The MPC voted unanimously to increase the policy repo rate by 50 bps to 4.90 per cent," Das said.
RBI also retained its GDP growth forecast at 7.6 per cent
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
As the MPC is mandated to target CPI inflation rate at 4 plus minus 2 per cent, any measurement error in CPI is likely to have grave consequences for monetary policy.
Instead of only focusing on the tenure for which the best interest rate is available, investors should also focus on their own investment horizon.
Analysts say RBI will cut rates because the liquidity crunch that began this time last year is still hurting the economy and also with an eye on the August industrial production numbers, which showed a contraction by 1.1 per cent -- the steepest in seven long years.
The RBI governor-designate may be economical with spoken words, but is known for his sharp and critical writings
Banks have raised concerns over the new international trade settlement in rupee, fearing that facilitation of such a mechanism could result in them facing the ire of economic sanctions by the West, people aware of the matter said. Large banks with overseas operations have sought clarity and assurance from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that they will not be targeted with sanctions for facilitating rupee trade with a sanction-hit country such as Russia. The present payment mechanism is a shift from earlier such arrangements, like the one with sanction-hit Iran, which involved banks facilitating settlement of international trade that did not have business in the sanctioned nation.
'Concerns about India's future are hampering private investment.' 'If the private sector sees strategy, teams and execution on these issues, this will inspire confidence in India.' 'This should be our main strategy for 2017,' says Ajay Shah.
Consumer prices rose an annual 5.11 per cent (2012 base) in January.
Lower inflation, FCNR(B) outflows likely to influence central bank decision
The wait for India to become a $5-trillion economic powerhouse by 2024-25 (FY25) is going to take longer than what the finance ministry had originally intended, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The vision will instead be achieved in 2028-29 (FY29), reveals the IMF data, illustrating a four-year delay. Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran had in February said India would become a $5-trillion economy by 2025-26 or the following year, on the back of 8-9 per cent sustained growth rate in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the IMF data conveys that the economy will be $4.92 trillion in FY28, clearly alluding to the fact that the target will be realised in FY29.
The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index, that maps both the manufacturing and services sectors, rose from 53.3 in June to 54.1 in July.
'Banks are being encouraged to lend instead of parking their resources with the RBI and earn risk-free interest income,' points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
SBI was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying over 10 per cent, followed by Kotak Bank, Dr Reddy's, UltraTech Cement, ITC and HDFC Bank. On the other hand, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Maruti and HCL Tech were among the laggards.
Given the various risks to growth, one could argue for rate cuts to be deeper than the 5 per cent terminal repo rate that we are projecting at this stage, says Kaushik Das.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Fed keeps rates unchanged, sets up possible December hike
'He is positive and likes to get work done,' is how a retired bureaucrat described him. 'I assume he will push the reform agenda with strength.'
By no means do economists see the Reserve Bank of India stop at just a 25-bp cut. Some of the economists such as Soumyakanti Ghosh of State Bank of India are of the firm view that rates have room to fall by a total of 75 bps in the current financial year, starting with 25 bps in the August 7 policy.
There is a narrow chance that the central bank may cut rates in the future, according to a poll of 15 economists and treasurers.
Chances of a rate cut in April improve if core inflation continues to ease, growth falling below the projected 7.2% for FY19 and if the global trade slowdown exacerbates.
After consumer price index jumped the 6.3-per cent mark in May and wholesale inflation set a record of 12.94 per cent, house economists at Swiss brokerage UBS Securities have warned that the country is facing more upside risks on the inflation front that is set to averaging at 5 per cent for the year. Rising prices of edible oils and protein rich items pushed retail inflation to a six-month high of 6.3 per cent in May, breaching the comfort level of the Reserve Bank and thus rendering reduction in interest rates a difficult proposition in the near term. Led by petrol price, that has crossed the Rs 100-mark in many states, wholesale inflation too accelerated to a record 12.94 per cent in May. While crude oil has crossed $70 a barrel on account of rising prices of crude oil and manufactured goods due to spike in commodities, and the low base of last year due to the lockdown.
India needs foreign exchange buffer reserves to insulate itself from exchange rate volatility as we have "no friends" for swap lines and Japan was the only country that helped during the taper tantrum in 2013, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Tuesday. Participating in a virtual event organised by economic think tank NCAER, Rajan said during the taper tantrum in 2013, India asked for swap lines, and only country who helped was Japan. "We need this (foreign exchange) reserve buffer to insulate ourselves because we have no friends.
The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 in November to 52.7 in December. Factories benefited from a rebound in demand, and responded by scaling up production to the greatest extent since May. As per the survey, new work orders witnessed marked improvement, with the pace of expansion picking up to the fastest since July.
S&P expects India to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2015, similar to the central bank's forecast for the fiscal year ending in March.
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