Heading to the third year, will Urjit Patel be busy firefighting a currency crisis? Almost no governor of the RBI managed to evade it and Patel perhaps knows it.
The imported inflation component is also expected to ebb on lower oil prices and softer US dollar, it said.
Shaktikanta Das is a master of the finest balancing act who listens to all but takes his own decisions, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
A combination of farm loan debt waivers by state governments and the implementation of the pay commission award could entail some fiscal slippages and pose a risk to inflation
As per the RBI Act, the central bank should have four deputy governors - two from within the ranks and one commercial banker and the fourth one an economist to head the monetary policy department.
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
Rajan also did his bit by taking steps to protect the currency against speculative attack as did the government in curbing gold imports and bringing the Current Account Deficit
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
Coal India topped the losers' list in the Sensex pack on Tuesday, falling 2.36 per cent, followed by Bharti Airtel at 2.16 per cent.
Armed with necessary macro and micro growth drivers, India is on its way to becoming the fastest growing major economy in the world, a finance ministry report said. Rapid vaccination and teeming festivities will push India's ongoing recovery resulting in narrowing of demand-supply mismatches and greater employment opportunities, as per the monthly Economic Review prepared by the ministry.
The trade gap was $11.66 billion in December 2015 while in September 2015 it stood at $10.16 billion
The resignation is sure to create more political firestorms for the government as it comes on the eve of the winter session of Parliament where the Opposition has already made it clear to the treasury benches that infringing on the RBI autonomy would be a big talking point for them.
Progress on monsoons along with favourable base effect in 2HFY2017 continues to point towards RBI achieving its near 5 per cent inflation target by the year-end
Raghuram Rajan called for purposeful and effective action to counter the atmosphere of cynicism, which has slowed down the decision making process.
We need a change in mindset, says the RBI Governor.
India's services sector activity moderated further in January as new business rose at a noticeably slower rate amid the escalation of the pandemic, reintroduction of restrictions and inflationary pressures, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell to 51.5 in January, down from 55.5 in December, pointing to the slowest rate of expansion in the current six-month sequence of growth. For the sixth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
Arvind Subramanian was appointed CEA in October 2014 and got a year's extension in September 2017
Rajan's exit will neither affect the RBI's de facto independence nor its working.
'There will be no serious effect on Indian economy because one person, one man, however powerful, however influential, however great, cannot have an impact on an economy as big and complex as India.'
'The rising cost of construction, the cost of doing business, high compliance, and inflation/interest rates going up have already reduced returns to single digits.'
Tuesday's policy announcement had a regulatory and development component.
RBI also retained its GDP growth forecast at 7.6 per cent
The Indian equity market is likely to remain under pressure and rangebound over the next few months. This comes as global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve look at a possibility of hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation. Back home, the Reserve Bank of India, too, remains data dependent in its endeavour to keep inflation in check and pursue an aggressive monetary policy stance.
India's economy will do well once vaccination reaches a critical mass as pent up demand, global recovery and easy financial conditions will boost activities, RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Ashima Goyal said on Tuesday.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Yes Bank, TechM, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Maruti, Asian Paints and Hero MotoCorp - rising up to 5.30 per cent. The 50-share Nifty ended 85.65 points, or 0.79 per cent, higher at 10,948.25 points.
The RBI governor-designate may be economical with spoken words, but is known for his sharp and critical writings
As the MPC is mandated to target CPI inflation rate at 4 plus minus 2 per cent, any measurement error in CPI is likely to have grave consequences for monetary policy.
'Concerns about India's future are hampering private investment.' 'If the private sector sees strategy, teams and execution on these issues, this will inspire confidence in India.' 'This should be our main strategy for 2017,' says Ajay Shah.
Consumer prices rose an annual 5.11 per cent (2012 base) in January.
Lower inflation, FCNR(B) outflows likely to influence central bank decision
In a double delight, retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent - staying below the upper tolerance limit for two months in a row, while factory output rose sharply to 7.2 per cent on the back of healthy growth in manufacturing. The retail inflation numbers based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide some room for the Reserve Bank to further moderate the quantum of hike in key interest rate or even press a pause button. The RBI has been on a rate hiking spree since May 2022 in its bid to tame inflation, having raised the repo rate by a cumulative 225 basis points (bps).
Analysts say RBI will cut rates because the liquidity crunch that began this time last year is still hurting the economy and also with an eye on the August industrial production numbers, which showed a contraction by 1.1 per cent -- the steepest in seven long years.
'We are very watchful about inflation and growth. But the main challenge is economic revival and growth.'
Services sector activities improved further and touched a five-month high in April driven by a surge in incoming new work orders that boosted business activity and supported a renewed increase in employment, according to a survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index jumped to 57.9 in April, from 53.6 in March, highlighting a sharp rate of expansion that was the fastest since last November amid mounting price pressures. For the ninth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
'They can transition from short to long-duration funds when the yield curve normalises.'
The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index, that maps both the manufacturing and services sectors, rose from 53.3 in June to 54.1 in July.
'There are occasions when the prices of individual items like food raise inflation; then supply-side measures must be taken.' 'But if there is continued inflation, it means liquidity is aggravating the situation.'
Fed keeps rates unchanged, sets up possible December hike
'Banks are being encouraged to lend instead of parking their resources with the RBI and earn risk-free interest income,' points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'He is positive and likes to get work done,' is how a retired bureaucrat described him. 'I assume he will push the reform agenda with strength.'
